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標題: 也許你才是對的 : S&P三重頂! [打印本頁]

作者: limfly 時間: 2013-1-12 03:33 PM 標題: 也許你才是對的 : S&P三重頂!

S&P 500 Snapshot: Friday's Flat Finish
and Musings on a Triple Top

By Doug Short

January 11, 2013

The S&P 500 slipped at the open and hit its intraday low, off 0.31%, at mid-morning. The index zigzagged through the day along a faint upward slope. A rally in the final hour took the 500 briefly into the green before settling for a flat finish -- down seven basis points or, if you like percents, you've got to calculate the close to three decimal places: -0.005%. For the week, the index gained 0.38%.
Here is a 5-minute chart of today's struggle.

I received an email earlier today from David Lea, who asked "What do you think about the possibility of the S&P heading into a triple top? Do the US fundamentals support the market moving to new highs?"
David's question prompted me to draw up a 20-year monthly chart of the S&P 500.

I share my overview of four market valuation indicators each month here. Could we be witnessing a triple top? Certainly. But, as I have periodically pointed out elsewhere, at today's return on fixed income investments, the lure of equities might remain strong despite valuation headwinds. Time will tell.
The S&P 500 is now up 3.22% for 2013 hovering just below its interim closing high set yesterday.
From a longer-term perspective, the index is 117.6% above the March 2009 closing low and 5.9% below the nominal all-time high of October 2007.

Click for a larger image

For a better sense of how these declines figure into a larger historical context, here's a long-term view of secular bull and bear markets in the S&P Composite since 1871.

作者: callmoon 時間: 2013-1-12 04:42 PM

看起來似乎再說再過不久~就可能重現往下重摔~不知我認知是否正確

作者: genius6301230 時間: 2013-1-12 07:09 PM

等吧感覺快來了就再不久的將來

作者: chiaming 時間: 2013-1-12 08:00 PM

本帖最後由 chiaming 於 2013-1-12 10:37 PM 編輯

我問小學生說這個圖型未來該怎麼走才會對稱
以下這是小學生非專業的回答
[attach]86338587[/attach]
同理
其它也是可以用同樣方法得到一樣的答案
台股也適用因為台股是跟著美股屁股後面

作者: allen61919 時間: 2013-1-12 09:31 PM

要嚴設停損....有可能往下重摔!

作者: xz055699 時間: 2013-1-13 11:23 PM

可能再過一陣子才會發生吧............沒那麼快

作者: bluegpf 時間: 2013-1-14 12:41 AM

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作者: limfly 時間: 2013-1-14 02:19 AM

chiaming 發表於 2013-1-12 08:00 PM
我問小學生說這個圖型未來該怎麼走才會對稱
以下這是小學生非專業的回答

[attach]86382684[/attach]用了三倍的時間恢復昔日光輝....秘密就在里頭?

作者: avy5471 時間: 2013-1-14 08:29 AM

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作者: limfly 時間: 2013-1-20 11:52 PM

[attach]86609932[/attach][attach]86609919[/attach][attach]86609948[/attach]二00八年的三張圖, 可以做為參考, 但與主題有一段距離。

作者: qq1980x 時間: 2013-1-21 12:29 AM

回過神來
你看打底就W
你會不會怕……

作者: JERRYCHEN1 時間: 2013-1-21 12:53 AM

這些圖真是辛苦帖主的提供,感謝~

作者: avy5471 時間: 2013-1-21 08:23 AM

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作者: qaz123plm321 時間: 2013-1-21 09:37 AM

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