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標題: 加拿大央行宣布降息0.25% [打印本頁]

作者: chandlerhcen    時間: 2024-6-6 04:28 AM     標題: 加拿大央行宣布降息0.25%


加拿大央行今天將隔夜利率目標下調至4¾%,銀行利率為5%,存款利率為4¾%。央行繼續執行資產負債表正常化的政策。

全球經濟在2024年第一季度增長了約3%,大致符合央行4月貨幣政策報告(MPR)的預期。在美國,經濟增長比預期慢,出口和庫存的疲軟抑制了經濟活動。私人國內需求增長依然強勁但有所減緩。在歐元區,2024年第一季度的經濟活動有所回升。中國經濟在第一季度也表現強勁,受到出口和工業生產的提振,但國內需求依然疲軟。大多數發達經濟體的通脹持續緩解,儘管通向價格穩定的進展曲折,且各地區的進度不一。油價平均接近MPR的假設,自4月以來金融條件變化不大。

在加拿大,2024年第一季度經濟增長恢復,結束了去年的停滯狀態。第一季度GDP增長為1.7%,低於MPR的預期。庫存投資疲軟抑制了經濟活動。消費增長約為3%,商業投資和住房活動也有所增加。勞動力市場數據顯示企業繼續招聘,儘管就業增長速度低於工作年齡人口的增長速度。工資壓力依然存在,但看起來在逐步緩解。總體來看,最新數據顯示經濟仍在超額供給狀態下運行。

4月的CPI通脹進一步下降至2.7%。央行偏好的核心通脹指標也有所放緩,三個月的指標顯示持續的下行勢頭。CPI各組成部分價格上漲的廣度指標進一步下降,接近歷史平均水平。然而,住房價格通脹依然較高。

隨著進一步證據表明潛在通脹正在緩解,管理委員會同意貨幣政策不再需要如此緊縮,並將政策利率下調了25個基點。最新數據增強了我們對通脹將繼續向2%目標移動的信心。儘管如此,通脹前景仍存在風險。管理委員會密切關注核心通脹的變化,特別關注經濟中供需平衡、通脹預期、工資增長和企業定價行為。央行堅決致力於恢復加拿大的價格穩定。

信息通知
下一次公佈隔夜利率目標的預定日期是2024年7月24日。屆時,央行將在MPR中公佈其對經濟和通脹的最新全面展望,包括對預測的風險分析。

Bank of Canada reduces policy rate by 25 basis points
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
Media Relations
Ottawa, Ontario
June 5, 2024

The Bank of Canada today reduced its target for the overnight rate to 4¾%, with the Bank Rate at 5% and the deposit rate at 4¾%. The Bank is continuing its policy of balance sheet normalization.

The global economy grew by about 3% in the first quarter of 2024, broadly in line with the Bank’s April Monetary Policy Report (MPR) projection. In the United States, the economy expanded more slowly than was expected, as weakness in exports and inventories weighed on activity. Growth in private domestic demand remained strong but eased. In the euro area, activity picked up in the first quarter of 2024. China’s economy was also stronger in the first quarter, buoyed by exports and industrial production, although domestic demand remained weak. Inflation in most advanced economies continues to ease, although progress towards price stability is bumpy and is proceeding at different speeds across regions. Oil prices have averaged close to the MPR assumptions, and financial conditions are little changed since April.

In Canada, economic growth resumed in the first quarter of 2024 after stalling in the second half of last year. At 1.7%, first-quarter GDP growth was slower than forecast in the MPR. Weaker inventory investment dampened activity. Consumption growth was solid at about 3%, and business investment and housing activity also increased. Labour market data show businesses continue to hire, although employment has been growing at a slower pace than the working-age population. Wage pressures remain but look to be moderating gradually. Overall, recent data suggest the economy is still operating in excess supply.

CPI inflation eased further in April, to 2.7%. The Bank’s preferred measures of core inflation also slowed and three-month measures suggest continued downward momentum. Indicators of the breadth of price increases across components of the CPI have moved down further and are near their historical average. However, shelter price inflation remains high.

With continued evidence that underlying inflation is easing, Governing Council agreed that monetary policy no longer needs to be as restrictive and reduced the policy interest rate by 25 basis points. Recent data has increased our confidence that inflation will continue to move towards the 2% target. Nonetheless, risks to the inflation outlook remain. Governing Council is closely watching the evolution of core inflation and remains particularly focused on the balance between demand and supply in the economy, inflation expectations, wage growth, and corporate pricing behaviour. The Bank remains resolute in its commitment to restoring price stability for Canadians.

Information note
The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is July 24, 2024. The Bank will publish its next full outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, in the MPR at the same time.
作者: aa0975707559    時間: 2024-6-6 12:06 PM

看來都要救經濟 不然都快給通膨壓住
作者: smile95    時間: 2024-6-11 08:59 AM

通膨降的不明顯 降息會很緩慢




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